Fundamentals of Crude Oil Pricing: Part III
October 31, 2008
If you have not read parts earlier parts of this article please visit Part One and Part Two.
Shortages, Stockpiles, and Decline Rates
Often one of the most important short-term pricing factors in regards to crude oil are shortages and stockpiles. These dynamics work in ways that are mysterious to most investors and misunderstood by many others. It is easy Read more
Fundamentals of Crude Oil Pricing: Part II
October 29, 2008
If you have not read the first part of this article, please go visit it here.
OPEC
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (commonly referred to as OPEC) is the world’s largest cartel. It consists of Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. OPEC has control of roughly two-thirds of the world’s oil reserves and 35% of the world’s crude production (these numbers do not include tar sands and other unconventional forms of hydrocarbons). OPEC collectively places production quotas on its nations Read more
Fundamentals of Crude Oil Pricing: Part I
October 27, 2008
Without a doubt, crude oil has been the commodity with the most buzz surrounding it over the last three years. Every investor and analyst (especially those geniuses on CNBC) has an explanation for every single move, but more often than not they are either misinformed or lying. The importance of crude oil to our world financial markets is very important; it affects everything from companies’ transportation costs to consumer behavior and spending habits. Being able to predict the future price or price movements would be an invaluable skill, but the question is how would an investor even go about this? I believe the basis of this unattainable skill is influenced by a wide number of factors. Read more
Untapped Potential: Southwestern Energy
October 22, 2008
Warning: If you don’t like to read about moderately speculative high growth stocks in a volatile sector, I recommend turning around and checking out another article about a “safe” stock (I doubt there is such a thing as a safe stock in this market). Many investors are worried about their equity holdings right now but prudent investors should be gearing up to open new positions. A wise investor named Read more
Impressive Earnings From Schlumberger
October 19, 2008
Friday before the opening bell Schlumberger Ltd. [SLB: 46.82, 0.00 (0.00%)] announced their third quarter 2008 earnings results, and they were promising to say the least. Here is a look at the numbers compared to the other relevant quarters Read more
Is Coal out of Steam?
October 8, 2008
As bad as it as been for many of the energy companies, its been even worse for the coal stocks on the way back down. Most of the major coal stocks are down over 50% from their highs since around the beginning of June. Much of this fall can be attributed to the violent swings in the price of the commodity itself, the rest of it deals with the premium at which the stocks trade due to their predicted earnings growth over the next 5-10 years. Read more
Why Was Crude Up Huge On Monday?
September 23, 2008
The trading at the New York Merchantile Exchange (NYMEX) on Monday turned from ordinary to absurd extremely quickly as oil had by far it’s largest one day nominal and percentage gain. I have now been covering the energy sector for more than two years but this was easily the most unbelievable trading day I have ever experienced. Crude oil opened the day at $104.55 and closed at $120.92 while hitting an intraday high of around $130.00. The trading became very volatile around 2:15pm that the NYMEX actually halted trading for about a minute because crude oil hit the one day stop out of a $10 Read more
Mid-Cap, Large Potential
September 15, 2008
I am not the first, nor the last, person to mention the sell off in commodities recently. Crude oil has now dropped below $100 a barrel and natural gas is down more than 40% off its twelve month high. No one can say when this slaughtering will stop and it is making more and more people wary of investing in stocks that are correlated with commodities. However, I have come across a company that has benefited from this rough time: Equitable Resources Inc [EQT: 35.96, 0.00 (0.00%)]. A stock that has mirrored the movements of the sector as a whole over the last few months; Equitable is now cheap enough to be Read more
What’s Next for the Bulk Shippers?
September 12, 2008
Investors seeking wild volatility in recent months have been big fans of the dry bulk shipping sub-sector. The interest in these companies has exploded over the last year because of their unique relationship with commodities, the energy sector, and the materials sector. In most cases over the short and intermediate term commodity spot prices do not affect the supply and demand Read more
ConocoPhillips: Find Safety in Energy
September 8, 2008
Economists, politicians, investors, and all taxpayers alike have been stirred by the movement of commodity prices this year. This is an economic environment where respected energy experts from equally respected institutions completely disagree about the short-term future of crude oil prices. This is a political environment where the American presidency is up for grabs and each candidate brings drastically different ramifications for the Read more
 
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