Invest like a young Warren Buffett
March 15, 2010
The following article contains a blueprint. The exact formula’s and functions to use with a stock screener to find stocks a young Warren Buffett would buy. These stocks are not just cheap, they have low debt levels, high quality management and strong profit margins.
A lot of us wish we could invest like Warren Buffett — and for good reason. Buffett and his partners acquired control of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, news, msgs) in 1965. Since then, by taking positions in publicly traded companies such as McDonalds (MCD, news, msgs) and buying other companies outright, Buffett transformed Berkshire into, in effect, a closed-end mutual fund.
What Kind of Economic Recovery?
March 12, 2010
For the third month in a row the index of leading economic indicators rose. This is the first time this has occurred since 2004. And, it gives us some sign that maybe the economic recession that we have been in since December 2007 is reaching its climax. James W. Paulson, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, is quoted in the Wall Street Journal as saying “We’ve got tons of information telling us we’ve turned the corner.” Ataman Ozyildirim, an economist at the Conference Board which produces the report, states that “The process of coming out of the recession, although still fragile, may be starting.”
EMCOR GROUP, INC. The Rebuilding Of America
March 11, 2010
President Obama’s stimulus package includes substantial spending on infrastructure projects. One company that stands to gain from the stimulus spending is EMCOR Group, Inc. (NYSE – EME.) EMCOR operates in the engineering and construction space. It is an electrical and mechanical construction and facilities firm with operations in North America, the United Kingdom, and the Middle East.
The Price Sales Ratio Revisited
March 11, 2010
The Price/Sales Ratio (PSR as commonly understood, is simply the subject company’s market capitalization divided by its most recent twelve months sales. The PSR was first popularized in Super Stocks in 1984 by Kenneth Fisher, the son of legendary investor Phillip Fisher. In subsequent years, studies have demonstrated the superiority of price/sales over price/earnings.
To be sure, Fisher never advocated the use of price/sales as a stand alone indicator of value. It is just one tool to use when in conjunction with other tools to estimate a company’s value. The PSR is particularly useful when looking at a company without earnings as the more commonly used P/E ratio is meaningless.
Teva Pharmaceutical: A Fair Price
March 11, 2010
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA) is the Israel-based maker of generic drugs and pharmaceuticals. TEVA is among the world’s largest and most successful generic drug companies. TEVA develops, produces and markets generic drugs covering all treatment categories. The Company has a pharmaceutical business, whose principal products are Copaxone for multiple sclerosis and Azilect for Parkinson’s disease, as well as a specialty pharmaceutical business, which consists primarily of respiratory products.
A Walk on the Supply Side
March 10, 2010
Keynesian demand-side economics still rules the minds of the policy makers in Washington, D. C. Their actions and their analysis continually point to their focus on aggregate demand and the “green shoots” that are expected to accompany an economic recovery based on the stimulus of spending.
For over a year I have been arguing that more attention needs to be given to the supply side of the equation. Yes, the growth rate of real GDP has been going down and the rate of employment has been going up. But, the rate of inflation, as measured by the rate of increase of the GDP price deflator has not declined since the fourth quarter of 2007. If it were just a demand side problem, this would not be the case.
Financial Well-Being and Regulation: the Obama Effort
March 8, 2010
Financial well-being is, in many ways, analogous to our physical well-being. We need periodic check ups and doctoral oversight, but in general true health is dependent upon the discipline and persistence and care that we bring to our own daily lives. However in other ways financial well-being in not the same. Our physical existence is limited to our natural selves: there are limits to how humans can grow and change. This is not true of the financial system.
In the world of finance we can innovate and change and find ways to get around regulation. This has been the modus operandi of the financial system during my entire professional career. Consequently, the financial system of today in substantially different than the financial world that existed in the 1960s. I have called the last fifty years or so the age of financial innovation. Regulation and oversight of the financial system does have to change. But, we need to be careful about the change in regulation and oversight that results and not just give in to populist calls to “put a stop to the greed on Wall Street”.
Protected: member
March 8, 2010
Terra Nitrogen: Food for Thought
March 8, 2010
Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (TNH) is a limited partnership that produces and distributes nitrogen fertilizer products. Its principal products are anhydrous ammonia (or ammonia) and urea ammonium nitrate solutions (UAN), which the Company manufactures at its facility in Verdigris, Oklahoma.
The company reported FY 08 earnings per share of $14.90 compared to $10.90 for FY 07, representing a 36.73% increase. EPS for the MRQ is reported at $3.55, down from $3.59 in the December 07 quarter. Sales are up 41.92% from $636.308 to $903.017 for the year. The five year growth rate for sales is 17.73.
The Banking System and Bank Lending
March 5, 2010
The headlines in the Wall Street Journal shout out at us this morning, “Bank Lending Keeps Dropping” (See http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124019360346233883.html#mod=testMod.) The bank lending they are referring to is the lending at “the nation’s biggest banks”, the banks that were the biggest recipients of government money. The results: the biggest recipients of taxpayer money “made or refinanced” 23% less in new loans in February than in October, the month the Treasury kicked off the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).
This is just one more piece of information that the banking system still has major problems.
